Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
