A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
